Emerging Technologies and Defense Industrialization in the GCC: Navigating the Localization–Outsourcing Dilemma in the AI Era
The defense and security landscape in the GCC region is going through profound transformation led by two main factors. The first factor is the emerging technologies including artificial intelligence (AI), cyber capabilities, autonomous systems, advanced missile defense and space applications. These technologies are redefining the national military capabilities and the operational environment in which GCC militaries must function.The second fa ...
Abstract
The defense and security landscape in the GCC region is going through profound transformation led by two main factors. The first factor is the emerging technologies including artificial intelligence (AI), cyber capabilities, autonomous systems, advanced missile defense and space applications. These technologies are redefining the national military capabilities and the operational environment in which GCC militaries must function.The second factor is the GCC countries’ strategic ambitions to reduce dependency on external suppliers and strengthen national sovereignty in security affairs. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and the UAE’s Operation 300bn industrial strategy, alongside similar initiatives in other GCC states are prioritizing the localization of defense production, fostering domestic innovation, and establishment of joint ventures and defense R&D. Based on this background, the workshop entitled " Emerging Technologies and National Defense Industrialization in the GCC States: Navigating the Localization–Outsourcing Dilemma in the AI Era," acts as a platform to examine how GCC countries are integrating emerging technologies while simultaneously building national defense industries. It also analyzes the implications of these developments on their national military doctrines and defense diplomacy.This workshop will convene experts from academia, defense industry, government, and international partners to discuss intersections between defense industrialization and military modernization and what horizons it creates. It will also explore the following key questions: What are the existing national strategies and institutional frameworks in GCC? How are emerging technologies being mainstreamed in GCC military capabilities? What are the new dimensions needed to be accommodated into the GCC state military doctrines? What are the best practices, lessons learned from global experiences, including state-led cyber deterrence, digital sovereignty, and the role of cyber security in shaping strategic autonomy? The discussion will also take into consideration how Gulf and MENA states navigate US-China technological competition, the influence of Eurasian cyber strategies (e.g., Russia, Turkey), and cross-regional threats.
Description and Rationale
Context
In 2023, the Gulf security environment entered a new era. The wars in Ukraine, Libya, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen have demonstrated the decisive impact of mercenaries, drones, cruise and ballistic missiles, and precision fires, forcing militaries worldwide to rethink doctrine. For the GCC states, the lesson is clear: resilience, dispersion, counter-UAS, electronic warfare, and layered air and missile defense are no longer optional. Recent events in the Middle East have reinforced this urgency. Iran’s unprecedented April 2024 drone–missile barrage on Israel, and the multinational defense it triggered, underscored the value of integrated, multi-layer systems and allied coordination. Meanwhile, Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes have turned maritime tracking, counter-drone, and missile defense into pressing priorities for Gulf economies dependent on secure trade. Across the region, conflicts from Libya to Sudan and Syria have normalized economic, numerous UAVs and precision munitions, reshaping operational concepts and exposing vulnerabilities at sea, in the air, and on the ground, including potential sea lanes of communication blockades by buoyant and limpet mines. It is within this volatile landscape that the workshop takes shape. Focusing especially on Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the workshop brings together scholars, industry leaders, policymakers, and international experts to analyze how emerging technologies, especially AI, cyber deterrence and attribution as well as space, sub-orbital ISR, and advanced missile defense are transforming both doctrine and defense industries in the Gulf.
At the heart of the conversation lies the localization–outsourcing dilemma. GCC governments are pursuing ambitious defense industrialization agendas, from Saudi Arabia’s 50% localization target to the UAE’s EDGE conglomerate, aiming to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers and enhance sovereignty. Yet global supply chains, intellectual property barriers, and the pace of technological innovation mean that selective outsourcing, partnerships, and co-development remain indispensable. The workshop asks critical questions: What frameworks and strategies currently guide defense industrialization in the GCC? How are AI and autonomy being mainstreamed into command, control, and combat? What doctrinal shifts are needed to counter drone and missile saturation, electronic warfare, and maritime threats? And what global best practices—from cyber deterrence to digital sovereignty—offer useful lessons for Gulf states?
By situating GCC defense industrialization within global technological and geopolitical transformations, the workshop will chart pragmatic pathways for localizing smartly, outsourcing strategically, and building resilient, AI-enabled forces capable of navigating a contested and fast-shifting security order. Recent developments in conflict zones, and the growing competition in space and hypersonics underscore that defense modernization is no longer incremental but exponential. GCC states today are forced not only to anticipate threats but leapfrog them with new technological solutions as well as adopt flexible doctrine that includes civil-military integration. The workshop’s findings will catalyze decision-making at the intersection of doctrine, technology, and industrial strategy. Its outcome may influence not only national policies but secure and shorter supply chains, and the balance of deterrence in a strategically volatile Gulf.
Gulf Research Meeting
