Overlapping Ambitions: State-Led Economic Diversification and Mounting Intra-GCC Competition
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) governments are attempting to accelerate their countries’ economic diversification through ambitious, nationally minded visions and strategies. These state-led initiatives demonstrate a shared desire to transition away from hydrocarbon reliance. They also exhibit significant similarities. While economic diversification has the potential to foster cooperation among the historically hydrocarbon-heavy GCC econo ...
Abstract
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) governments are attempting to accelerate their countries’ economic diversification through ambitious, nationally minded visions and strategies. These state-led initiatives demonstrate a shared desire to transition away from hydrocarbon reliance. They also exhibit significant similarities. While economic diversification has the potential to foster cooperation among the historically hydrocarbon-heavy GCC economies, similarities in the member states’ national visions indicate increased intra-bloc competition. The GCC economies are increasingly vying for the same investors, visitors, and global prominence across several sectors.This workshop will explore the implications of these overlapping government-led strategies. The workshop aims to address questions such as: What are the effects of these economic rivalries, both real and perceived, on the GCC economies and intra-bloc relations? Will this overlap foster economic growth across the GCC equally, or will it produce winners and losers? Will it encourage innovation and healthy competition, or will it risk duplication and resource waste? What is the role of the GCC as a regional institution—a facilitator of coordination, a platform for policy alignment, or a bystander to mounting rivalries?This workshop invites comparative studies focusing on more than one Gulf state from economic and political economy perspectives. Scholars are encouraged to consider competition among GCC states in specific sectors (e.g., aviation, logistics, renewable energy, sports, art, AI, finance, etc.), comparative analyses of national strategies, and the evolving role of state-owned enterprises and sovereign wealth funds in contributing to regional rivalries. Research examining the efficacy of the GCC as an economic union in this context is also welcome. Papers employing qualitative, quantitative, or mixed methods are all welcome, provided they offer comparative insights across more than one GCC state. Papers from a range of disciplines or from an interdisciplinary perspective are welcome –– but they should be written to be accessible also to an informed audience beyond the discipline in question.
Description and Rationale
Context
The GCC economies are undergoing significant transformations. These states began to consider economic diversification policies as early as the 1980s. However, their efforts have arguably intensified following oil price crashes in 2008, 2014, and 2020. To secure long-term fiscal stability, ensure employment for their national populations, and advance their global economic positions, all GCC governments have launched long-term “vision” documents describing their economic objectives for the future. These include Bahrain Economic Vision 2030, Kuwait Vision 2035, Oman Vision 2040, Qatar National Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia Vision 2030, and the UAE Centennial 2071. These plans share common objectives: establishing economies less reliant on hydrocarbons (oil and natural gas), enabling the private sector to participate more effectively in the economy, promoting knowledge-based sectors, enhancing trade and logistics, and transforming financial and logistical centers into regional and global hubs.
These strategies indicate that the GCC member states all recognize the importance of diversification in their resource-dependent economies, but they also reveal an intensification of competition among members of the same economic union. Saudi Arabia’s initiative to attract multinational headquarters unapologetically threatens Dubai’s established position as the Gulf’s commercial hub (Salacanin 2025). In the skies, Emirates, Qatar Airways, Saudia, and soon Riyadh Air compete fiercely, openly demonstrating their ambitions to dominate the global aviation industry (Saunokonoko 2023). Even in sports and event hosting, from the FIFA World Cup to Formula 1, GCC states show a shared desire for global prominence (Szalai 2025). In terms of logistics, the Duqm port in Oman, the NEOM project in Saudi Arabia, and the Jebel Ali port in the UAE all compete for the same shipping routes, products, and partners (Szalai 2025). And several of these states are also exploring or already directing investment towards blue and green hydrogen, and AI-related data centers.
The escalating rivalry and competition among GCC economies merit thorough examination. From an economic perspective, market-driven competition can be beneficial by enhancing consumer choices, reducing prices, and fostering innovation. Nonetheless, government-sponsored competition may result in unnecessary disruptions, oversaturating already well-served markets and potentially wasting public funds by copying the successes of other GCC economies. From a political standpoint, prioritizing national interests over regional cooperation may compromise the credibility of the GCC as an economic bloc and hinder its declared objective of promoting economic integration among its member states.
The GCC states’ overlapping ambitions also impact their global position. International investors, multinational corporations, and external entities may exploit these rivalries and incite competition among Gulf governments to secure more favorable arrangements. State-led rivalry could also undermine the GCC’s attractiveness as a common market. If nationally minded ambitions trump the regionalization of regulations and the advancement of the GCC as a common market for domestic producers and foreign partners, then competition among these states is bound to deepen intra-bloc economic imbalances.
While the literature on the GCC states’ diversification efforts has grown in recent years, it has largely remained confined to consideration of each state’s strategies –– comparatively or individually –– while the connection with GCC integration, and the questions raised above, have been left virtually unexamined, with the exception of just one study on the potential benefits of regional integration for GCC diversification (Mishrif & Alnaamani 2018) and a single baseline study identifying the questions raised here (Eskandar 2025). This workshop intends to remedy this apparent blind spot.
Gulf Research Meeting
